2050 - And Immortality is at our Grasp

[Solario]

2050 - And Immortality is at our Grasp (http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1489635,00.html)

"Aeroplanes will be too afraid to crash, yoghurts will wish you good morning before being eaten and human consciousness will be stored on supercomputers, promising immortality for all - though it will help to be rich.
These fantastic claims are not made by a science fiction writer or a crystal ball-gazing lunatic. They are the deadly earnest predictions of Ian Pearson, head of the futurology unit at BT.

'If you draw the timelines, realistically by 2050 we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it's not a major career problem,' Pearson told The Observer. 'If you're rich enough then by 2050 it's feasible. If you're poor you'll probably have to wait until 2075 or 2080 when it's routine. We are very serious about it. That's how fast this technology is moving: 45 years is a hell of a long time in IT.'

He believes that today's youngsters may never have to die, and points to the rapid advances in computing power demonstrated last week, when Sony released the first details of its PlayStation 3. It is 35 times more powerful than previous games consoles. 'The new PlayStation is 1 per cent as powerful as a human brain,' he said. 'It is into supercomputer status compared to 10 years ago. PlayStation 5 will probably be as powerful as the human brain.'"


Figured this might spark a debate, so I just started it here, instead of the Asylum. Anyone else finding it slightly disturbing that in about 20 years, you might be having a conversation with your yogurt before you eat it? Personally I'd never be able to, I'd become too attached to my yogurt after half an hour of discussing which well articulate juice to go with it.

The business of immortality is tricky though, because essentially the computer version of your consciousness would be a copy of yours and not just moving it. This is kind of like cloning (the scifi cloning, where it has identical memories as you, not our cloning) in that matter. I do however like the prospect of having a copy of me roaming free in the digital world.

[coldcut]

This is the sort of thing that people were predicting twenty years ago, thirty years ago, fifty years ago, since the information age began in earnest. I say it's bunk.

The first AI we build to fly a plane will either annihilate us all or fly to Amsterdam and spend the rest of its life downloading illegal mods while working in a hashish shop.

The future is both more exciting and more boring than the human brain is capable of imagining. Unless you're Jules Verne.

[Solario]

Yeah, I found it interesting, but I also said to a friend concerning this article that these are probably the same people from the 50's, who predicted we'd all have hovercars and live on the moon.

Nice thought though. But seriously, the world is turning into Transmet by the second.

[Noble]

Anyone else finding it slightly disturbing that in about 20 years, you might be having a conversation with your yogurt before you eat it?

This isn't new. People can already have conversations with their yogart. There are plenty of mind altering drugs than can help you reach this futuristic world many many years before it arrives.

[coldcut]

Yeah, I found it interesting, but I also said to a friend concerning this article that these are probably the same people from the 50's, who predicted we'd all have hovercars and live on the moon.

Nice thought though. But seriously, the world is turning into Transmet by the second.

The interesting thought I had about this article is the part about designing AIs. I've read this before: they're not designing AIs, they're sort of letting the AIs design themselves, like growing a child or something. But without getting lengthy, if we're basing all this on the human brain, then the final product will ultimately be as flawed and imperfect as the original. Not that this is new, sci-fi has been saying this for close to a century now. But the lessons of literature are lost on the brains of today.

[Got]

I daresay all those that read 1984 back in the day scoffed at the concept of mind-numbing, propaganda-laden telescreens constantly informing an disinforming, omnipresent CCTV surveillance and even manufactured pop music.

I'm always stunned and rather scared by the unwittingly prophetic devices in that novel.

Anyway, got to dash, those Parsons children are looking at me funny again.

[Tsarmina]

.... yoghurts will wish you good morning before being eaten and human consciousness will be stored on supercomputers, promising immortality for all.
Um. There is a reason why I like to buy my food all clean an packaged. I don't want to be reminded of what it really is. Then again... get into an argument with your food and you get the satisfaction of getting in the last word as you chomp it down. :chuckle:
I'm not sure my consciousness is worth preserving for all prosperity though. :/

[WingedAvenger]

My yog hurts.

But seriously folks... I don't buy into the concept of us being able to download our brains any time soon, even if 45 years. Implantable microchips, maybe, but brain downloads, nope. Science already has enough trouble understanding how the human brain works.

[Jade_Dragon]

Well, the idea of downloading your brain into a computer opens up all sorts of those Ghost in the Shell questions about at what point a cybernetic human stops being a human. But assuming we continue along that path, that's metaphysical questions we're going to have to ask. (Along similar lines is the question raised by articles about Star Trek's transporter technology. If you destroy yourself and then recreate yourself in another location, are you still you? Did you just kill yourself?)

I suspect, however, that religious issues may cause people to be reluctant to allow technology to progress in such areas. AIs may be rigidly regulated, to prevent them from becoming "too human". And while connecting yourself to the network may be a regular occurance, downloading yourself into it and "transferring to another medium", as it were, would probably be frowned upon. Assuming the technology is regulated to the point where full brain replacement simply can't be developed, there would still be something "human" that you could point to and say "that's me". Even though, in the end, there is probably just as much question on a metaphysical level as to whether you're still human as if your entire body is replaced.

I also don't mind adding, in my stories about Alan Midnight, which is set in 2276, I've pretty much made those kinds of assumptions. The article is right, in that in 50 years, at the current pace of development, the technology should be almost unrecognizable, and you'd think in 270 years it would have developed even further. Yet, people are really people no matter what the year, so I'm assuming that at some point, the development will have to stagnate, if not because of physical limitations, because of political pressure.

So while my 2276 has a virtual reality Internet and AIs, most people aren't rich enough to be able to afford the best quality cybernetic implants, much less actual immortality. Most implants are, in fact, black market hack jobs. And AI's are strictly regulated to prevent them from gaining self determination. Alan has experimented with his own AI partner, Rachel, just to see how far an AI CAN progress, but of course that's quite illegal, and so he has made sure even Rachel isn't fully aware of her potential.

Then again, there's no reason why some of my stories might revolve around CRIMINALS who are trying to gain immortality. Or AIs that develop out of control. The question is still there, it's just I'm assuming that until we have some way to know for sure, we're going to be a little wary of downloading ourselves into robots. It sounds fun, yeah, but once you've done it, there's no going back... :D

[Stalking Shadow]

I'm still waiting for my flying cars.

[8 Ball]

I just assumed we'd be cloning ourselves to remain Immortal by that point :D.

[Gold Rush]

Predicting the future has always been a tricky proposition.

Heck, I am still angry that I don't have a personal jet-pack when the year 2000 rolled around or that aliens had STILL managed to avoid the earth from their invasion plans. And still no moonbase, although in 1999 it was suppossed to blast out of earth orbit (Space : 1999) or at least crack into two pieces (Thundarr the Barbarian). (* Dang, I am a slow typer, Stalking Shadow sorta beat me to this point :P )


You just have to look back at old Science Fiction and see just how much has changed into reality and how much did not make the cut (Books by HG Wells and some movies help with this).

Not many people predicted the internet would be such a force today. Things pop out from nowhere. This author makes some great predictions and I could certainly see a number of them coming true. As Mina points out, I don't see many food products talking to you for the same reason you point out, Solario. Mainly, people would grow attatched to their food (remember the little talking hamburger puppets in old McDonald commercials? Heck, remember the full sized walking versions of Mayor McCheese or "Big Mac" the cop?

Although, actually, I do see alot of advertising attempts with food products, especially for kids. I think it was Blade Runner (?) that had a beer with a twist off cap that emoted a small holographic light show before one drank from the bottle. Similiar things have made their way into magazines, albeit without holograms (mostly sound-chip advertisements). I can see kids enjoying eating talking dishes (although not all kids would, so mostly likely america would not get this type of product because a few people complained so it would be banned :mad: ).

I see alot of inward activity, similiar to the internet. Virtual Reality games and enviroments will continue to grow, despite a few warnings in books and shows (Star Trek : TNG ) of the dangers of overindulging oneself to the exclusion of the real world.

As for immortality, I don't discount downloading information from your brain via one process or another, but that would most likely be done if one suffered an extremely debilitating accident or some such. I say this because doctors are currently closing in on the very DNA/genetic processes that naturally age bodies; they are begininng to understand what makes us grow old and with that knowledge the can potentially stop aging altogether (although, I bet this not as fool proof as it sounds, we probably need to grow cloned tissue to replace organs, such as the human heart after the first 50 million miles or 95 years, whichever comes first :chuckle: ).

It is a bit scary to see potentially people stop growing or deciding to stop at certain ages, at least from my view. Imagine a family with an 8 year old, a 13 year old, and a 15 year old that kept the same age for at least 200 years? What would be the brain development of such children? Hormone level of the teenagers? (I suspect, they will be stunted as well. This is part of a my observance of life that I will get around to sharing later if someone asks). What about laws for driving? Responsibility?

The technologies are interesting and can be cool, but you also have to look at the enviroment and social grounding of human beings. I am sure some may want to push the envelope of using certain future technologies and others will be afraid of it. Many times, things are adapted whole heartedly by society and other times, it is not for some reason or another (like no one is ready for it; "before it's time").

I could talk forever about this, but it seems May has been a busy month for me (not only the Birthday but lots of other life things. Not terrible stuff, but it certainly has tired me out :) ). I still got to try out the Arena (I've only been on scant times :/ ).

Gold Rush

(And then there is the graphics, and the killing of many chinese that I must finish in Dynasty Warriors 5 and Jade Empire, and those scripts I have to finish detailing out and getting a film crew and actors... Sheesh! )

[Elemento]

Corporate business will always have the final say on any future tech being released to the public.
For instance, geodesic domes were provin feasible by the U.S. Government back in the sixties when Buckminster Fuller designed them. Not only for growing crops or raising livestock but also for living residences. They talked about using them for farmers to control climate and weather conditions for their crops in colder climates. Now about forty years later, we only use them to grow plants in a showcase not for food.
The hovercar is possible right now. We've had the tech to build them for quite some time. Car and tire manufacturers squelched the idea behind their doors for fear of wrecking the economy.
They did the same with gas saving carburetors and engines that run on methane.
Since the early seventies, the military has been testing a laser tank at Fort Hood. Ever since I read that report, there has been little news of anything being used yet. The laser tank has the first mounted laser cannon. At the same time, they're working on flat paint grenades so the laser can burn holes through their target better.
The British for years now has been working on a fear ray which affects a portion of a person's brain to panic.
Currently we have now come up with testing on medical brain implants to help people with certain disorders. It uses the person's thoughts to replace lost function such as sight, speech, or hearing.
In New York recently they used a robotic device to help stroke patients regain function.
It's not a question therefore if we'll have the tech to do these things but more a question of whether the corporate world will allow it in regards to the economy at that time.
If anyone knows military history, had the Nazis not been stopped by the Allies in 1945, they would've won possibly cause at that time they were working on the airplane that would've changed the entire course of the war. This super Messerschmitt had everything beat in the air.
That's just an example of how other events may change predictions of these so-called futurists. Don't think they think much about chaos theory where anything can tilt the scales either way.

For myself going on 53, I can only say this. Biomedical and robotic research will increase. By 2050, I can see cures for most of our common cancers. On the other hand, new medical struggles with mutant viruses will still be a problem. Look for genetic research to take the forefront in combating these viruses as scientists test different ways of actually combining DNA to fight them: Chromosomes versus chromosomes.
Medical implants for lost function of your endocrine glands may be possible. It would greatly help those with diabetes if your pancreas had help.
Memory implants to replace lost memories in Alzheimer patients though ethically it may be fought against like stem cell research is today. There is always the fear that someone may implant other things you never did in your life or orders to do something you wouldn't do otherwise.
I see a smaller version of the air collision warning device installed in our vehicles.
Solar windshields which gather the sun's energy to heat the windshield which would help our wipers out greatly.
Ultrasonics and photonic energy will be utilized for home and commercial machines even more. Examples of this would be: instead of imploded demolitions to bring down buildings, construction will use sonics to bring it down. Something akin to positioned tuning forks. Lasers will be used more industrially to cut metals and materials. In the home, an ultrasonic dishwasher that uses sound to vibrate debris from our dishes. It will work like the smaller version jewelers use.
Here's one of my predictions I love. A refrigerated picnic chest. No longer would you have to depend on ice bags. A smaller unit for lunchboxes.
One thing I'd like to see is a food synthesizer which can create food out of trash or air molecules. It's just a rearranging of atoms to make food. We now only have chemicals that can do that. Amyl acetate has the taste of bananas. Octyl acetate has the taste of oranges. That's how we currently get artificial ingredients.
Anyway by 2050, I may not even be here.